About Processes

People who know me know that I have a biased view of processes – and that’s probably because I’m working for Facebook at this moment, and generally speaking larger companies have more processes than smaller ones. While I have a lot of ideas while discussing with my coworkers about processes, I’d like to put down some more structured thoughts in this article.

First of all, what I believe that makes a company / organization / team successful boils down to two very fundamental things:

People, Domain.

  1. Key people is a multiplier to an organization. They unlock potentials and make impossibles possible. They are people of integrity who would consider faking or even taking shortcuts unacceptable – and they would quit if forced to do so. They don’t blindly follow instructions, and have their own thought of thinking. They have the domain knowledge, and willing to master new domains whenever needed. They ask rest of the org to be the same of them, or at least a portion of them.
  2. Domain defines how well the people power can be unleashed. Even super talented person cannot fight against trends. A hot domain may make someone less talented to look like they’re super talented. However, it’s worth noting that if you have the right people, talented people can find the right domain (think the shift to mobile and the companies who succeeded and failed)

The rest plays much less critical roles. Even with a bad process, the good ones will still figure out how to navigate it and find the answer, while a good process cannot magically turn something shitty into great.

Steve Jobs had a great comment on process vs content – which I take the content as “the content great people produce”. I can’t agree more with him.

When I think about the greatest CEOs in the tech industry, they all seem to care a lot about details, and they have a lot of thoughts on them. Take Elon Musk as an example, even as busy as an CEO (or CEOs), he still knows how a rocket works in details.

So am I against processes? No. I think they are important, though from a different way.

Processes are there to make the best use of the talented people.

While we want to work with as many talented people as possible, the sad fact is that we only have a few talents. Processes exist because they give them power, or reduce the friction of having the talented people taking care of the rest. Aka, letting the great people to become more efficient in creating content.

Let’s take an example. A team used to have unstructured roadmapping processes. This worked great because we have a great TL who understands product and engineering. This worked until the team started to grow, potentially by 2x or 3x – the TL can no longer cover every roadmapping if nothing changes.

To address this problem, we can create such processes:

  1. Make sure all the product ideas are vetted and ordered upfront.
  2. Make sure all product ideas have well-documented plan so that it’s super clear to the TL what needs to be built.
  3. Have this TL go through the docs and give early feedbacks on each project.
  4. Have a review session to finalize on the roadmap.

In this process, 1 reduces prevents low quality ideas to go through the roadmapping session. 2 reduces the back & forth between product & engineer, and also pushes product to think through the project in more details. 3 turns the back & forth into an async communications and 4 ensures the “eventual consistency” between product & engineer. This process introduces more work for the product team, but increase the value of time this TL puts into it.

While this example this talent is an engineer, it could be anyone – including yourself. It could also be an important highly productive team in the org.

Processes don’t make sense if you don’t have talents on the team, or they’re not a constraint resource. Processes increase the amount of work for people overall – and only when we can shift some work from the talented to the rest of the team processes start to make sense.

Alright, to end this post, here are my two principles on processes:

  1. Processes are useless if you don’t have the talented person.
  2. Built processes for that person so they create more great content.

There will be only one winner in Food, Drink & Local Services

Players in high frequency need can beat low frequency need players extremely easily.

Yelp will definitely agree to this statement – they’re getting killed by Google.

Food is the highest frequency need, then drink, then other local services (grocery, autos, karaoke, kart racing, kayaking, wedding, etc etc).

You will probably know you can also order drink from the app where you ordered food, rather than an app where you ordered grocery delivery, even though the nature of the business are not much that different.

Doordash will almost certain enter the business of grocery delivery, killing instacart and shipt.

Doordash has to face Yelp, if it wants to keep its high evaluation after COVID. Yelp is currently only 2.67B while Doordash is 65B. Buying Yelp will be a smart move that will almost pay back immediately after COVID.

Ride sharing will be the next one. Isn’t it nice if you can send some riders to restaurants, then immediately pick up some food from the very same restaurant (or in the same plaza), deliver it to the residential area, and then getting another ride request from the residential area to the business area?

The list goes on and on. The path is clear, the rest is just execution. Doordash had amazing execution in the past (and strategy as well for sure!) – otherwise they would not have won the delivery war.




  1. Apple 举起隐私大旗,Android 厂商将被迫跟随 – 小米是第一个对此下手的 Android 手机厂商,但绝对不会是最后一个。
  2. 欧洲等国家因为这种商业模式收不到税,开始以各种理由限制对个人数据的收集并加大罚款力度。
  3. California Props 24 的通过表明普通人的隐私意识已经开始觉醒。


  1. 比原生广告更原生,融入内容。很多创作者的恰饭广告质量也很高。
  2. 用户与创作者的联系让用户甚至很乐于看这样的广告。
  3. 不依赖于精确的数据收集,但是同时又具备一定的定向性。

主要的问题还是在于广告的门槛变得更高,对于新广告主,试错成本变得很高,而且质量控制困难,scale 也比较困难,如果这些问题能被解决,可能恰饭广告的春天就会来临。写一写我的基本思路:

  1. 广告主提供模版,创作者只需要按照模版读广告词即可,或者利用 AR 把 UP 主形象放在模板里。
  2. 创作者预先录制好相同长度内容不同的广告,可以在播出时进行简单的定向投放。
  3. 中间平台进行广告的质量控制 – 类似于抖音的小范围分发来确定质量 帮助创作者制作出效果好的广告

WSB 是否会引发美股流动性危机?

GME 的盘子并不大,但是如果多头真的死撑着不卖,疯狂增加的空头保证金可能会让基金和做市商不得不出售其它股票以回补,锁定大量的流动性,而其它基金有可能会看到这一点,对大盘股进行做空,继而再被 WSB 的散户继续盯上,引发全局的流动性危机?


WSB 大战空头的另一个视角

With great power comes great responsibility.


最近落下帷幕的新总统政权交接,最终以特朗普被广大互联网平台联合封杀而首场。Facebook 在这场剧里的角色,显然是要逊于 Twitter 一些的。甚至从更广义的角度上来说,Twitter 一直都是特朗普故事里的主角,从一开始到最后。

再往前追述,更有意思的事情,大概就是 Tiktok 上的年轻人让特朗普的 Rally 空无一人。

而最近,WSB 上的事情,我更愿意称之为 Reddit 的胜利。显然这带来了大量的流量,但是我看到的,是 Reddit 所汇聚的人的力量。


这件事情似乎已经很久没有在 Facebook 上出现了。再往前推,可以推到俄国政府利用 Facebook 干预大选。虽然可能确实有一些影响,但我很难相信这些影响左右了最终的大选结果,毕竟即使是在2020年,特朗普的得票率也还是历史第二。

再往前走,我依稀记得 Facebook 似乎在阿拉伯之春中扮演了很重要的角色。

可是今天,我似乎已经完全不记得 Facebook 在过去几年中,到底汇聚了什么人的力量,引领了什么样的潮流,又或者是创造了新的焦点。



稳 = 最低风险跑赢大盘


  1. 苹果源源不断的钞票喂养,确保了 TSM 在研发上的投入以及先进制程上的领先地位。最近苹果新 Mac 的传言中,苹果取消了之前过于激进的全 USBC 设计,摆明了准备要“扩圈”。Mac 实现对 PC 的蚕食也未必不可能,这些对 TSM 都是利好。
  2. 自动驾驶会给人类社会带来互联网普及以来的最大变革,而这一切都需要强大的算力来进行保证。目前来看特斯拉的那个100多T算力的芯片,对于高级别的自动驾驶可能还是会力不从心。蔚来已经开启了自动驾驶领域的军备竞赛,各家新能源汽车都会被迫加入这场战争。无人驾驶需要的算力将会是海量的,而造车势力不管哪家胜出,TSM 都坐收渔利。



次先进制程:供给AMD MTK 高通



三星目前不管是制程还是成本,都与台积电有差距,能接到订单的唯一原因可能就是还有产能。毕竟三星的 5nm 再差也还是台积电 10nm 的水准。


Robotaxi 是邪路

自动驾驶有两条主要路线,一条是由 Waymo 主导的 Robotaxi 路线,只为用户提供点 A 到 点 B 的服务,一上来就是L4,另一条是由 Tesla 主导的造车路线,逐步改进提高。

不看好 Robotaxi 路线的主要原因有:

  1. Market 太小,相对于汽车销售来说。可能有人会说有了 Robotaxi 之后就不用买车了,然而即使是在买车成本 >> 打车成本的中国,汽车销售依然是巨大的市场。所以这一点不成立。
  2. 缺少渐进路线。Robotaxi 必须要达到一个很高的自动化程度才能还是有意义,然而即使是最简单的用超声波雷达做的自适应巡航,对于司机的驾驶感受都是很有意义的。
  3. 采集用于训练的数据量不如造车路线。

相比之下,从造车开始逐步提供辅助驾驶积累数据,到完成L4自动驾驶,再开启 Robotaxi 将会实现对前者的降维打击。


最近国产 Model Y 降价,正好趁着这个机会谢谢我对电动车行业的思考。


观点1: 汽车的未来在于智能化,智能化的核心在于无人驾驶

无人驾驶车辆对于传统汽车的竞争将会是碾压性的。现在汽车之所以还没有广泛的普及无人驾驶,根本原因在于技术难度过高。在无人驾驶之外,汽车的智能化也已经有所普及,例如 Apple CarPlay 和 Android Auto。但是这些应用层的创新还不够,汽车的智能化的核心就是无人驾驶,将人的注意力解放出来。

观点2: 传统汽车厂商转向困难,必然会被智能化浪潮淘汰


观点3: 要想成为中国特斯拉,必须要在中国市场战胜特斯拉





小鹏当然也有它的问题,主要的风险在于 1) 管理层的价值观。之前特斯拉偷代码事件闹的沸沸扬扬,我希望只是个例,而不是管理层价值观不正的缩影 2)过于激进的无人驾驶方案导致事故。

于此同时,我依然认为特斯拉本身也是非常有竞争力的,而且 Elon Musk 如果想要把中国市场做好,那就是一定可以做好的,主要的风险在于对中国市场投入不够,或者对中国区管理层信任不足,不能放权。在中国市场里竞争需要贴身肉搏,中国区管理层权限不足会很难对市场动向产生反馈,在局部里被国产品牌打压。在跨国公司里,这样的事情屡见不鲜。




侃侃 Smallfoot


最近在飞机上看了这部动画片,看完真的有种不吐不快的感觉。也许对很多人来说,动画片只是给孩子看的而已,但是 Smallfoot 真的饱含了导演和编剧的很多想法,通过精巧的剧情设计传达给荧幕前的我们,这样正能量的精神内核,让我感慨不已。



  1. 鼓励孩子的求知欲和探索欲,不迷信权威而要努力去寻找真知
  2. 要坚守初心,不要投机取巧走捷径而忘了你到底为什么出发的
  3. 如果你是多数群体,要接纳和了解不一样的人;如果你属于少数群体,也要勇敢走出柜子,不要将自己隐藏起来





1. 装直链脚本,地址在这里:https://greasyfork.org/en/scripts/39776-%E7%99%BE%E5%BA%A6%E7%BD%91%E7%9B%98%E7%9B%B4%E6%8E%A5%E4%B8%8B%E8%BD%BD%E5%8A%A9%E6%89%8B%E4%BF%AE%E6%94%B9%E7%89%88

2. Mac 实在没有什么好的下载工具,找来找去还是 axel 最简单。Homebrew 装 axel,没有 Homebrew 的话先到这里装上: https://brew.sh/


brew install axel

3. 最后一步,开 100 个线程下!


axel -a -n 100 "下载地址"